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By: Karnvir Mundrey
Global Alcohol Sales Are Falling-Is India Being Turned Into the World’s Next Drinking Market?
In the Indian story of the Samudra Manthan, the devas and asuras churn the cosmic ocean in search of amrita-the nectar of immortality. But the ocean does not give them only nectar.
It also releases halahala, a poison powerful enough to destroy the world. Wealth, medicine, temptation and Varuni-the goddess associated with wine and intoxication-emerge from the same churning.
The story offers an unexpectedly appropriate metaphor for the global alcohol industry. Alcohol has long been sold as pleasure, sophistication, celebration and social connection. But consumers are increasingly examining the poison that can accompany the nectar: poor sleep, damaged health, impaired judgement, lost productivity and financial cost.
Across Europe, North America and several other mature markets, people are drinking less. Vineyards are being uprooted, wine consumption is falling and some of the world’s largest alcohol companies are searching urgently for new sources of growth.
Their attention is increasingly turning towards India.
The same global industry confronting moderation in the West is investing in wine clubs, masterclasses, diplomatic dinners, festivals, trade exhibitions and tariff negotiations to make drinking more fashionable in India.
That is the great contradiction at the centre of the global alcohol industry slowdown:
The world is being persuaded to drink less – but India is being taught to drink more.
The global alcohol industry slowdown is now undeniable
The alcohol business once operated on a reassuring assumption: every generation would eventually discover beer, wine or whisky, begin drinking socially and remain a customer for decades.
That assumption is becoming less reliable.
Global beverage-alcohol volumes declined by 2% in 2025, according to IWSR. That represented approximately 500 million fewer nine-litre cases and marked the third consecutive year of declining consumption. Beer, wine and spirits all contracted; ready-to-drink products and no-alcohol beverages were among the few areas of growth.
The crisis is even more visible in wine.
The International Organisation of Vine and Wine estimates that global wine consumption fell to 208 million hectolitres in 2025 – a decline of 2.7% in a single year and approximately 14% since 2018. Nine of the world’s ten largest wine markets recorded lower consumption in 2025. Consumption fell by 9.4% in Italy, 5.2% in Spain, 4.3% in Germany and the United States, and 3.2% in France. Global vineyard area also contracted for the sixth consecutive year. France alone removed approximately 34,000 hectares of vineyards during 2025.
This is no longer a temporary correction caused by inflation or the pandemic. It is a structural change in the consumer’s relationship with alcohol.
Europe’s disappearing vineyards show the human cost
The statistics become more disturbing when translated into physical landscapes.
A study examining the European wine industry visited Schweinfurt in Germany, where 13 wineries once operated. Today, only one remains. Some German wine growers fear that as much as 30% of the country’s vineyard acreage could eventually disappear. Vines are not being removed because the soil has suddenly become unsuitable. They are being removed because the economics no longer work.
Steep vineyards require expensive manual labour. Harvest workers are increasingly difficult to find. Wages have risen, while wine prices remain under pressure. Younger members of wine-growing families frequently choose careers that offer more money, security and personal freedom.
One German winemaker removed three-and-a-half hectares of vines from slopes overlooking the Main River. The land was ideal for growing grapes. It simply could not generate sufficient income. As he observed, winemaking contains enormous emotion-but emotion can also make a winemaker bankrupt.
Abandoned vineyards create additional problems. Untended grapes can spread fungal diseases and pests to neighbouring properties. Their disappearance also changes the landscapes upon which local tourism, gastronomy and regional identity depend.
In Franconia, wine tourism is estimated to generate roughly 15 times as much economic activity as wine sales alone. A vineyard supports not only the person producing the bottle, but also restaurants, hotels, transport companies, festivals and entire rural communities.
The decline of wine therefore affects far more than wine companies. It threatens a cultural and economic ecosystem.
Alcohol has lost its health halo
For decades, many drinkers were reassured by the idea that a glass of red wine might be good for the heart. That comforting message is being displaced by a more uncomfortable one.
The World Health Organization describes alcohol as a toxic, psychoactive and dependence-producing substance. It estimates that alcohol consumption contributed to approximately 2.6 million deaths worldwide in 2019.
The WHO has also stated that available evidence cannot establish a safe threshold below which alcohol carries no cancer risk. Alcohol is causally associated with several cancers, including cancers of the breast, liver, bowel, mouth and oesophagus. Public perception is beginning to reflect this evidence.
In Gallup’s 2025 survey, only 54% of American adults said they consumed alcohol-the lowest level recorded by Gallup in nearly 90 years. A record 53% believed that even moderate drinking was harmful to health.
Alcohol is therefore no longer competing only with other alcoholic drinks. It is competing with fitness goals, sleep scores, calorie trackers, mental clarity, early-morning workouts and the desire to remain productive the following day. A night out is no longer evaluated only by how enjoyable the evening was.
It is also judged by what it does to tomorrow morning.
The financial hangover is becoming harder to justify
Health is only one reason for the decline in alcohol consumption.
Money is another.
The cost of drinking extends far beyond the bottle. A night involving alcohol may include restaurant mark-ups, club entry, taxis, food, babysitting and an unproductive morning afterwards. Consumers facing expensive housing, food, education and healthcare are becoming more selective about discretionary spending.
Online communities provide anecdotal but revealing evidence of how people describe this decision. Internet users who have reduced or stopped drinking frequently mention improved sleep, lower anxiety, greater mental clarity and the surprising discovery that money remains in their bank accounts for much longer.
The alcohol industry once benefited from drinking being an automatic part of social life. Now the consumer increasingly performs a mental calculation: Is this evening worth the money? Is the second drink adding anything? Do I want to sacrifice tomorrow for tonight?
For a growing number of occasions, the answer is no.
From automatic drinking to conscious drinking
Indian philosophy did not necessarily treat every pleasurable substance as inherently evil. But it repeatedly warned against allowing appetite to control the individual.
In Chapter 6, verse 17 of the Bhagavad Gita, Krishna describes the value of moderation in food, recreation, work, sleep and wakefulness. The emphasis is not on joyless denial. It is on yukta – balance, regulation and conscious proportion.
This is remarkably close to the behaviour now reshaping the alcohol industry. Many consumers are not becoming permanent teetotallers. They may still enjoy wine with dinner, whisky at a wedding or beer with friends. But alcohol is becoming a choice rather than an automatic ritual.
The shift is not simply from drinking to abstinence. It is from automatic drinking to conscious drinking. That is potentially more disruptive for alcohol companies because conscious consumers ask questions habitual consumers rarely considered: Why am I drinking tonight? Do I genuinely like the taste? Is another glass improving the experience? Am I drinking because I want to – or because everyone else is?
The Mahabharata’s warning about intoxication
One of the Mahabharata’s most disturbing episodes appears in the Mausala Parva, which describes the destruction of Krishna’s own Yadava clan. The Yadavas are not weak or unsuccessful. They are prosperous, powerful and victorious.
But at a gathering in Prabhasa, intoxication loosens old resentments. Insults become arguments. Arguments become violence. Members of an apparently invincible community turn against one another and destroy their own clan. Alcohol is not presented as the only cause. Pride, curses, destiny and unresolved grievances are also part of the story. But intoxication removes the final layer of restraint.
That is the deeper psychological warning. Alcohol does not necessarily create every human weakness, but it can release feelings that discipline, courtesy and self-control usually contain. The story is ancient.
The behaviour remains familiar.
Do not blame the slowdown entirely on Gen Z
It has become fashionable to claim that Gen Z has rejected alcohol.
The reality is more complicated. Younger consumers are certainly more comfortable with sobriety, moderation and alcohol-free drinks. However, recent IWSR research suggests that legal-drinking-age Gen Z consumers are becoming more engaged with alcohol in some markets, while Baby Boomers are reducing their consumption more sharply.
In IWSR’s 2026 consumer research, Boomers reported the lowest participation, the fewest drinking occasions and the lowest consumption per occasion of any generation. Across generations, the average number of drinks consumed during an occasion also declined.
The alcohol industry slowdown is therefore not being caused by one unusually sober generation. Young adults may drink less because of cost and changing social habits. Middle-aged consumers may reduce alcohol because of sleep, weight, blood pressure and family responsibilities. Older consumers often cut back because of ageing, medication and health concerns. Moderation is spreading across age groups.
That means the industry cannot solve the problem merely by producing younger advertisements or hiring more influencers.
Weight-loss drugs could intensify the decline
Another challenge may be emerging from an unexpected industry: pharmaceuticals.
Early clinical evidence suggests that GLP-1 medicines such as semaglutide, used in the treatment of diabetes and obesity, may also affect alcohol craving.
A small randomised clinical trial involving 48 adults with alcohol-use disorder found that low-dose semaglutide reduced alcohol consumed during a laboratory self-administration test. Over nine weeks, it also reduced some measures of weekly consumption and significantly reduced alcohol craving compared with a placebo. The researchers stressed that larger trials are required before strong conclusions can be reached. Nevertheless, the possibility is commercially significant.
If medicines being used by millions of people reduce both appetite and alcohol cravings, beverage companies may find themselves competing not only with mocktails and mineral water, but with biology itself.
Can non-alcoholic wine become the new amrita?
The greatest threat to the conventional alcohol industry may also be its largest opportunity.
No-alcohol beer has already shown that consumers may want to preserve the taste, packaging and social ritual of drinking without accepting the intoxication.
Wine is technically more difficult. Alcohol gives wine warmth, body, texture and a lingering finish. Removing it can leave the drink thin, sweet or similar to grape juice. Red wine presents an especially difficult challenge.
Wine communities reflect this divide. Some users say they have never found a convincing non-alcoholic wine. Others report that sparkling alternatives can come remarkably close to the real experience, while still and red wines remain less successful.
Technology is gradually improving the result. Wine can be placed under a vacuum, allowing alcohol to be removed at temperatures of around 28°C. Aroma-recovery systems then capture aromatic compounds removed with the alcohol and return them to the finished drink.
The process is not cheap. De-alcoholisation may add between €1 and €1.50 per litre, and commercial facilities can require minimum batches of several thousand litres. It also exposes an uncomfortable truth: poor wine does not become good simply because its alcohol is removed. A convincing alcohol-free wine still requires excellent grapes, careful fermentation, strong aromas and skilled winemaking.
One German entrepreneur expanded from selling 7,000 bottles of alcohol-free wine online to approximately 300,000 bottles annually through wholesalers, restaurants and export markets.
Non-alcoholic wine may not save every vineyard. But it could allow producers to reach pregnant women, athletes, drivers, health-conscious consumers and people living in markets where alcohol is culturally or religiously restricted.
As mature markets shrink, India becomes the prize
The global picture changes dramatically when we turn to India.
India was the world’s most important alcohol-growth market in 2024, adding approximately 6% in volume and 9% in value. Beer and whisky were the largest contributors, although growth extended across several major categories.
India’s wine market remains tiny compared with its spirits industry. Wine represents only around 1% of the value of alcoholic beverages consumed in the country. Yet this is precisely what makes India attractive.
The Indian wine market was valued at almost $450 million at retail prices in 2024. Wine volumes had grown by approximately 7% annually over the preceding five years. European Union wine exports to India rose by 24% in 2025 to approximately €9 million.
To international producers confronting falling consumption in France, Italy, Germany, China and the United States, India offers something increasingly rare: A large, affluent and aspirational population whose wine-drinking habits have not yet been fully established. India is not merely another market in which wine can be sold.
It is a market in which millions of future wine consumers may still be created.
The growth of wine clubs in India
There is no comprehensive national census of wine clubs in India. Claims about their growth must therefore be made carefully.
But the available evidence shows that organised wine appreciation has expanded beyond a small circle of diplomats, expatriates and luxury hotels.
India now has established wine communities in Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Nagpur and other cities. Some operate as formal membership organisations. Others function as tasting communities, supper clubs, festival audiences, social-media groups and invitation-only dining circles.
Delhi Wine Club reported organising 11 wine dinners in 2024, most of them at five-star hotels. Its first major event of 2025 was held at the residence of the Chilean ambassador-demonstrating how wine promotion can bring together private clubs, diplomatic missions and foreign producers.
The Bombay branch of the International Wine and Food Society currently operates with invitation-only membership and a waiting list. Its programmes have included fine-wine dinners, blind tastings and Bordeaux-focused events.
Earlier figures also show wine culture spreading beyond the traditional metropolitan elite. By 2021, Bangalore Wine Trails claimed more than 500 predominantly millennial members, while the Nagpur Wine Lovers Club reportedly had around 300 members. These are historical rather than current totals, but they demonstrate how organised wine culture was already entering new cities and younger social groups.
This growth matters because wine clubs do more than bring existing wine lovers together. They reduce the intimidation that prevents newcomers from buying wine. A sommelier explains the grape. A chef suggests the food pairing. A visiting producer describes the vineyard. Fellow members provide social reassurance.
The unfamiliar drink becomes understandable. It may then become aspirational. Eventually, it can become habitual. The wine club does not merely help sell tonight’s bottle.
It helps create tomorrow’s consumer.
Wine is being packaged as a lifestyle
Wine promotion in India has moved far beyond traditional retail advertising.
It is now presented through vineyard weekends, curated dinners, diplomatic receptions, music festivals, food pairings, grape-stomping events, masterclasses and luxury travel. This is commercially intelligent because wine has always been difficult to sell purely as a liquid.
Beer promises refreshment. Whisky promises strength or status. Wine frequently requires education. Consumers are taught how to hold the glass, recognise an aroma, pronounce the region, choose the vintage and match the bottle with food.
When a market has little inherited wine culture, education and marketing become almost indistinguishable. Wine is therefore not being sold only as alcohol.
It is being sold as travel, sophistication, knowledge, romance, community and cultural discovery.
The international alcohol industry is descending on India
The intensity of foreign interest became visible at ProWine Mumbai.
The event began with educational campaigns in 2018 and 2019 involving more than 40 brands each year. By 2024, it had expanded to more than 170 exhibitors, ten country pavilions and over 5,900 attendees.
Its 2025 edition included 12 masterclasses and dedicated areas for spirits, competitions, networking, awards and zero-alcohol products. The organisers explicitly described the exhibition as a platform for international brands seeking entry into India.
The 2025 Australian pavilion alone featured 12 producers representing 20 premium wine and beverage brands. Austrade organised regulatory workshops, market visits, importer sessions, tastings and masterclasses, and facilitated more than 100 targeted business introductions.
France participated through Business France for the fifth consecutive year. Producers and trade bodies from Germany, Italy, Ireland, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States were also represented.
Ireland used the event to highlight that its spirits exports to India had risen from €3 million in 2020 to more than €31 million in 2024. Business France described ProWine as a platform for presenting French wines and spirits to India’s increasingly premium-focused market.
This is not casual exploration. It is coordinated market development.
International producers are competing to influence Indian importers, distributors, restaurants, retailers, sommeliers, journalists and affluent consumers before their rivals establish stronger positions.
Australia is openly pursuing a first-mover advantage
Australia provides one of the clearest examples of the strategy.
Wine Australia’s promotional material described ProWine Mumbai as an opportunity for Australian wineries to gain a “first mover advantage” from tariff reductions under the Australia–India Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement.
The programme offered regulatory briefings, retail visits, customs and warehousing support, masterclasses and access to Indian buyers.
Under the interim trade agreement, India began reducing its previous 150% tariffs on certain Australian wines. Australia subsequently sought faster and deeper reductions.
India resisted those demands, arguing that accelerated tariff cuts could affect its developing wine industry, grape growers and farmers. Australian industry representatives argued that lower duties would reduce prices and expand the market for both imported and Indian wine.
This is where the commercial battle becomes politically important. Foreign wine producers are not merely competing with one another.
They may also compete with Indian wineries and farmers that are still developing their quality, distribution networks, brands and wine-tourism businesses.
Italy is building culture, not only distribution
Italian wine organisations have adopted a similarly long-term approach.
Vinitaly’s international programme has included India roadshows in Mumbai and Goa designed to connect Italian wine producers with Indian buyers. The wider Vinitaly strategy uses tastings, training, trade meetings and wine-ambassador programmes to communicate the culture and regional identity of Italian wine.
The significance of this strategy should not be underestimated. Italy is not simply shipping bottles to India. It is helping teach Indian consumers how to understand Italian wine.
The grapes, regions, vintages and food pairings become part of an aspirational cultural system. Once consumers learn that system, price comparisons become less important and the story surrounding the bottle becomes more valuable. The industry is not merely responding to an existing demand.
It is actively cultivating demand.
Is the global wine industry desperate?
No trade association or foreign government describes its India strategy as desperate.
They use more acceptable terms: export diversification, consumer education, premiumisation, cultural exchange and market development. But the urgency is difficult to ignore.
Global wine consumption has fallen by 14% since 2018. Vineyard area has contracted for six consecutive years. Consumption is declining in most large traditional markets. Nearly one bottle in two is consumed outside the country in which it was produced, making access to export markets essential for the industry’s survival.
Europe has more wine-production capacity than its shrinking consumer base can comfortably support. Producers unable to increase domestic sales have three broad choices: They can reduce production. They can close. Or they can find new consumers elsewhere.
India therefore becomes the new ocean to be churned. Its population, rising incomes, luxury-hospitality industry and relatively low wine consumption make it attractive precisely because consumer habits remain malleable.
It would be unfair to portray every tasting or wine dinner as a sinister attempt to encourage alcoholism. Wine clubs can promote education, quality, food appreciation and moderate consumption. Indian wineries and grape farmers also need commercially viable markets.
But we should remain honest about the objective. International producers do not organise expensive masterclasses in India simply because they want Indians to understand European geography.
They want Indians to buy more wine.
The paradox: wine sales struggle while wine experiences grow
India’s own wine industry reveals an intriguing contradiction.
During the quarter ending June 2025, Sula Vineyards’ own-brand sales declined by 10.8%. Its wine-tourism revenue, however, increased by 22%, supported by higher footfall, record occupancy and greater spending per visitor. By the final quarter of FY2026, conditions had improved. Sula reported 7% quarterly revenue growth, an 11% increase in elite and premium sales, and an 18% rise in wine-tourism revenue. For the full year, however, its own-brand performance remained below the previous year after adjusting for a one-time accounting benefit.
The message is important:
The bottle may struggle even while the experience flourishes.
India may not adopt the old European model of drinking wine routinely with everyday meals. Wine may instead develop as a premium, occasional and experience-led category: vineyard holidays, weddings, festivals, tastings, luxury dinners and aspirational social events.
This could produce fewer habitual consumers than overseas producers hope for -but potentially more profitable ones. It also gives Indian wineries an opportunity to earn from hospitality, food, events and tourism instead of depending entirely on alcohol volumes.
India must decide what kind of wine culture it wants
India does not have to reject wine.
It has grape farmers, winemakers, hospitality businesses and tourism regions that can benefit from responsible growth. Indian wine can also be a sophisticated agricultural product that creates rural employment and regional value.
But India should distinguish between building a sustainable domestic wine ecosystem and becoming the replacement-consumption market for an oversupplied global industry.
Wine clubs should discuss moderation as seriously as they discuss terroir. Festivals should give alcohol-free and lower-alcohol wines meaningful visibility. Masterclasses should acknowledge health evidence instead of presenting wine as inherently healthy or sophisticated. Restaurants should provide serious non-alcoholic choices rather than treating non-drinkers as customers who must settle for sugary soft drinks. Foreign producers seeking access to Indian consumers should contribute to responsible-consumption programmes and transparent labelling. And public policy should protect Indian farmers and producers while recognising the healthcare and social costs that can accompany higher alcohol consumption.
Elegant glasses, European vocabulary, vineyard sunsets and ambassadorial dinners may change how alcohol is perceived.
They do not change its biological effects.
What the alcohol industry must learn from Samudra Manthan
The Samudra Manthan did not produce only one treasure.
It produced poison, wealth, medicine, intoxication and immortality from the same ocean. Consumers today are attempting a similar separation. They are not necessarily rejecting pleasure. They still want celebration, flavour, sophistication, friendship and ritual.
But they increasingly want those experiences without losing control of their health, money, sleep or behaviour. The alcohol companies most likely to survive will therefore stop defining success only by how many litres of alcohol they sell. A future-facing wine company may offer full-strength, lower-alcohol and alcohol-free products. A spirits company may focus on smaller servings and premium experiences rather than sheer volume. A vineyard may earn as much from hospitality, food, weddings and tourism as it does from bottles. A restaurant may make the non-drinking guest feel as valued as the wine drinker.
In the Samudra Manthan, Shiva does not pretend that the poison does not exist. He contains it so that it cannot destroy the world. That may be the lesson for the modern alcohol industry.
The party will continue. But the winners will not be the companies that simply persuade people to drink more.
They will be the companies that remain relevant when people decide to drink less.
Karnvir Mundrey is the Editor of TheFutureOfPR.com. Reach out at tfofpr@gmail.com or at +918296303806.
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