Here is the recipe to BOOST trade with Belarus!

By: Karnvir Mundrey

India and Belarus: an old friendship with unfinished business · Discovery Series, Episode 16 – Live on October 14th 2026

In 1967, a computer arrived at IIT Bombay. It ran on transistors and paper tape, and the institute’s own history marks it as the start of computing on campus. Its name was Minsk II, and it was built at the Ordzhonikidze plant in Minsk.

In March 2019, Belarusian officials opened a pharmaceutical plant in Skidel, in western Belarus. Novalok was about 77% owned by India’s Lok-Beta Pharmaceuticals and was built to make 78 million tablets and capsules a year. By July 2025, its building was up for auction over unpaid taxes.

One arrival helped build an institution. The other ended at auction. Between them sits most of what an Indian business needs to know about Belarus: the goodwill is real, but deals live or die on design.

In Episode 15, on Algeria, the lesson was: don’t sell the shampoo, sell the shampoo factory. Belarus flips it. The factory already exists. What it needs from India is the molecule.

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One country, one conversation

The Discovery Series was launched by World Trade Center Bengaluru with the Bangalore Chamber of Industry and Commerce. It introduces Indian MSMEs to one foreign market at a time, through the trade officials, diplomats and business leaders who know it. Earlier episodes have taken us to the UAE, Japan, the Netherlands, the Philippines, France, Australia, Nigeria, Vietnam, Belgium and, most recently, Algeria.

I ask every panel the similar questions. How long does it take to register a company? What mistakes do foreign firms make? Which sectors welcome Indian partners? For Belarus, the official record answers part of each. Indians already living in Minsk answer the rest.

The country

Belarus is a little smaller than Uttar Pradesh but has only about 9 million people, fewer than live in Bengaluru. About 40% of it is forest, including Białowieża, a UNESCO-listed primeval forest where European bison still roam. Minsk is clean, orderly and inexpensive by European standards, and its winters are long and dark.

Politics shapes everything. Alexander Lukashenko has ruled since 1994. His supporters credit him with stability, while his critics point to repression. Western governments refused to recognise him after the disputed 2020 election, and Minsk rejects their criticism.

The state generates more than 70% of GDP. The economy is tied closely to Russia, and growth has slowed to about 1.3%. Many working-age Belarusians have moved abroad, which leaves employers short of labour.

Deep roots, thin wallet

The ties are older than either country in its present form. India and the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic were both founding members of the United Nations in 1945. In 1985, Rajiv Gandhi visited Minsk, laid a wreath at the Khatyn war memorial and toured the factory that had built IIT Bombay’s computer. When the Soviet Union broke up, India was among the first countries to recognise Belarus, and the two established relations on 17 April 1992.

The partnership has produced real things. BHEL commissioned equipment for the Grodno power project in 2013 under a $55.5 million contract. In 2015, Pranab Mukherjee made the first visit to Belarus by an Indian President and announced a $100 million credit line. The two governments then set a $1 billion trade target for 2018. In 2017, Modi and Lukashenko named pharmaceuticals and heavy machinery as priorities, and an investment treaty followed.

Culture travelled too. Belarusian scholars have written on the Vedas and translated Kabir and part of the Rigveda, and Hindi is taught at Belarusian State University. At the UN, each side backs the other.

The money never followed. In 2021–22, India exported $65 million of goods to Belarus and imported $381 million, for total trade of $446 million. By 2024–25, exports were $69 million and imports just $37 million, a total of $107 million. Trade fell by about 76%, yet Indian exports actually held up. The collapse was in imports, which means potash.

Follow the potash

India imports almost all its potash, historically a fifth of it from Belarus, and subsidises it heavily for farmers. Yet recorded fertiliser imports from Belarus fell from $364 million in 2021–22 to $11 million in 2024–25.

The potash didn’t stop; it changed route. Sanctions closed Lithuania’s Klaipeda port to Belarusian cargo, so it now moves through Russian ports. About 650,000 tonnes were still due to reach India in 2025, worth roughly $227 million. That is more than double all recorded trade between the two countries.

Indian goods take a detour too. Belarus recorded $152 million of imports from India in 2021, against only $62 million of exports in India’s own books.

So real trade is several times the official figure. The first opportunity is to move it onto direct contracts. That would also help narrow gaps like this year’s potash price of $383 a tonne, which is $35 above what China pays.

Sell the molecule

India’s direct medicine exports to Belarus were only about $18 million in 2024, because Belarus chose to make its own. Local drugs hold half the market by value and more than 80% of hospital supplies. They cost about a third as much as imports, and about 95% of new launches are designed to replace imported medicines.

The barrier isn’t tender rules. Medicines aren’t on Belarus’s 15% state-tender preference list, though some medical devices are. The opening lies further up the supply chain. Raw materials make up 60–65% of a medicine’s cost, and Belarusian officials said in 2015 that they buy many of them from India. Interest is live: a 45-member delegation from Pharmexcil, India’s pharmaceutical export council, went to Minsk in March 2026.

There’s a clock, though. From December 2026, Russia, which buys most Belarusian medicines, will give an extra preference in state purchasing to drugs made entirely inside the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the Russia-led trade bloc that includes Belarus, from the active ingredient up. Novalok had planned exactly that: making active ingredients in Belarus.

That points to a path in three stages. Indian firms can supply ingredients now, co-register products with Belarusian partners next, and later make ingredients inside Belarus with guaranteed state purchases built into the deal. At every stage, register each product under EAEU rules in your own name, because whoever holds the registration controls the trade.

What lasts

BelAZ shows what works. In 2021 it signed with Coal India for 96 dump trucks plus eight years of parts and service, after shipping 77 trucks the year before. India’s potash contracts with Indian Potash Limited, MTZ’s tractor assembly with Erisha Agritech and BHEL’s equipment at Grodno share the same design: a big, funded buyer, a service contract and an Indian partner controlling the Indian side.

Novalok had none of that. It was a $3.6 million plant betting on a small, price-controlled market.

China’s Geely offers another model. It formed a joint venture in which BelAZ, a state firm, held the larger stake. The venture started with kit assembly and grew into a local brand, and today one in three cars sold in Belarus is a Geely. The structure is worth copying. The partner is not, because BelAZ is now under EU sanctions.

The view from the ground

Indians who live in Minsk, several of whom run YouTube channels and company-setup consultancies, answer the series’ three questions in practical terms. Most of them sell these services, so treat their figures as claims to verify.

On registration, they say a lawyer acting under power of attorney can register a company in one or two days. A business visa takes 10 to 15 days. The whole process, including a first residence permit that usually runs for a year, takes 30 to 45 days. The usual documents are a passport, an attested degree, a CV and a bank statement. They stress that, unlike in the Gulf, a Belarusian company needs no annual licence renewal. One company can carry several lines of business, and a foreigner can own all of it without a local sponsor. A virtual office is enough at first, with real premises, a bank account and tax registration to follow. By their estimate, a small shop with full papers can be set up for roughly $15,000 to $20,000, or ₹12 to 20 lakh.

On mistakes, they are blunt. The most common is arriving on a tourist visa to do business instead of on a business visa. Others start businesses they don’t know how to run, or arrive without at least six months of cash in reserve. Many never learn Russian, even though younger Belarusians speak English and older customers and officials mostly don’t. Some expect lawyers to work for free. Others open fast food in Minsk against McDonald’s and KFC instead of in an underserved small town. And many assume one permit covers everything, when serving coffee from a machine and cooking on site need different permissions, and a food truck needs a paid, fixed spot.

On sectors, they point to services Indians do well: salons, mobile-phone repair, take-away coffee, food trucks and catering, including mobile services for families living outside the city. They also see openings for construction skills such as building wooden frame houses. They note the competition too: Chinese entrepreneurs are already opening cafés and bubble-tea shops in Minsk.

One warning runs through all of this. Some agents market Belarusian residence as a back door into Europe. The EU already accuses Minsk of using migrants as a pressure tool, and such schemes end badly. Use registered lawyers, the right visa and written contracts.

Three gates

Before any deal goes ahead, it has to pass three gates.

The first is whether the transaction can legally proceed at all. The US has eased sanctions on Belarusian potash in exchange for prisoner releases, but the EU has not. In September 2026, an EU court upheld asset freezes on the truck makers MAZ and BelAZ.

Screen owners as well as company names. The US treats any firm that is 50% or more owned by blacklisted parties as blacklisted itself, and its export controls can reach goods made in other countries. India isn’t immune: in 2024 the US sanctioned 19 Indian companies and individuals over supplies to Russia. If a deal could cost you a European customer, walk away.

The second gate is whether the money can move, and whether your business survives if it moves late. Payments inside Belarus are made in Belarusian rubles. Cross-border contracts must be registered, and Belarusian exporters must bring their earnings home.

Indian banks can hold special rupee accounts for Belarusian banks, but each bank must confirm your particular deal. A 2022 potash payment routed through a Russian bank largely stalled. India’s export credit insurer, ECGC, rates Belarus C1, with only restricted cover. Model every deal as if the ruble were 20–30% weaker than it is today.

The third gate is who controls your access to the market. There’s no blanket rule requiring a local partner, and 100% foreign ownership is possible outside restricted sectors. But only a company inside the EAEU can hold the product certificates needed to sell there. Hold your own, and make any partner earn their stake.

Residence follows the business. Practitioners say a temporary permit comes through a company, a job or marriage, with permanent residence possible after five years. They also cite a separate permanent-residence route for investments of about €150,000. Belarus has no citizenship-by-investment scheme. Confirm all of this with a lawyer. And because Belarus is landlocked, name the full route and the carriers before you quote a price.

Winning the room

Belarusians are polite but reserved with newcomers. Trust comes slowly, then lasts, so meet in person and more than once. That is getting easier: Belarus approved e-visas for Indians in September 2026, and Belavia flies weekly to Delhi. Work in Russian wherever you can, and use the roughly 1,000 Indians in Belarus, most of them medical students, as a bridge.

Small things matter too. Visitors must carry health insurance, which vloggers put at about €170 for a year. Register your address within days of arrival, and check the current rule before you travel. Bring only crisp, undamaged dollar notes, because banks reject worn ones, though cards work almost everywhere. Don’t haggle in markets, and expect about a 10% service charge in restaurants. Drinking or smoking in public parks, and littering, can bring fines. Finally, plan around the calendar. Avoid midwinter and the long holiday season, when Belarus celebrates Christmas and New Year twice, by both the Western and the Orthodox calendars.

The race

Vietnam has had a free trade deal with the EAEU since 2016. Indonesia signed one in December 2025 that covers coffee, fish and textiles, which are India’s own export lines. India’s talks with the bloc only began in 2025.

India should push coffee, tea, seafood and textiles into an early interim deal, together with chapters on food safety and government purchasing. Vietnam’s experience shows that paperwork, not tariffs, is the real barrier. Meanwhile, India’s free trade deal with the EU is due to be signed in December 2026, and it is far too valuable to risk for business in Belarus.

Where to start

Sector	Opening	Prove first
Potash	Direct multi-year contracts settled in rupees	The full bank and transport route
Pharma	Ingredients now, co-registered products next	Registration in your own name
Medical devices	Private clinics	15% tender preference for local products
Food	Tea, coffee and rice via an importer or the commodity exchange	Labelling, approvals, repeat orders
Small services	Salons, phone repair, take-away coffee, catering	The right visa, permits, six months’ cash
Machinery	MTZ components; BelAZ servicing	The partner’s sanctions status
IT	Defined civilian projects	Export controls, intellectual property, payments
Defence	Government channels only	Mostly on US and EU sanctions lists

Whatever the sector, start small. Give each project a buyer, a budget, an owner and a deadline. Then define the offer, verify the route, run a paid pilot, and scale only when the evidence is in.

Questions for Episode 16

Some answers aren’t in any public document, so these are the questions I’ll put to the panel. How much trade moves through third countries today, and how do we bring it onto direct contracts? Which Indian ingredients do Belarusian drugmakers buy, and on what terms? How will Russia’s new preference for medicines made entirely inside the bloc change what they need from India? Are the special rupee accounts actually being used? How long does it really take an Indian founder to go from company registration to a residence permit? What did Novalok teach both sides? And which India–Belarus deals have actually been delivered and paid for in the past two years?

Back to Bombay

The Minsk II worked because the exchange was practical: a machine arrived, a centre grew and people learned. BelAZ’s trucks still run in Coal India’s mines. The Skidel plant ended at auction. The difference was never goodwill. It was design.

Belarus will never be a large market, but it is a good test of whether Indian firms can move up the value chain. Sell it the molecule, not the pill.

Join the conversation

To take part in the Discovery Series, contact Vivek George at World Trade Center Bengaluru (vivek@wtcbengaluru.org) or April Varkey at World Trade Center Kochi (aprilvarkey@wtckochi.org).

For more on the series, read Breaking Into Global Markets: How a simple Webinar Is Empowering Indian MSMEs and INDIA and ALGERIA Are Old Friends. Why Is the Business Still So Small? (Ep. 15).

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Karnvir Mundrey is a narrative strategist and media entrepreneur who helps founders, institutions and international businesses turn complex ideas into influential public stories. He is the Founder of Atharva Lifesciences Consulting Pvt. Ltd. , Atharva Marcom and Founder Editor of TheFutureOfPR.com. He has also authored a book on Nutraceuticals (available on Amazon). Karnvir Mundrey is also the producer and host of 4 YouTube channels. Finest Fintalk brings you the latest in Finance, LitInMin for Books, The Health Tips Podcast for health and Atharva Marcom for leadership talks He is also recognized as India’s longest running podcast host, continuously running since 2006!